Climatic Trends and its Impacts on Agricultural Production in Chhattisgarh, India

India is a vast nation whose economy relies heavily on agriculture. There have been fluctuations in food production as a consequence of the dependence of Indian agriculture on the monsoon and the likelihood that climate change will amplify the variability of monsoon dynamics. Any changes in the southwest monsoon rainfall in India as a consequence of regional climate change are anticipated to cause severe droughts and intense flooding in many parts of the nation. Clearly, changes in precipitation and their effects on agriculture are a significant issue that must be addressed immediately. Regional and local studies of climatic variability are extremely essential for agricultural planning and water resource development. therefore, keeping in mind the above observations we conducted the study.

The present study has been conducted in different agro-climatic zones of Chhattisgarh, Primary and secondary sources of data were used to conduct the study, for the primary level study, a sample of 360 farm households from villages was selected from a Multistage stratified random sampling technique to represent the state as a whole. The conditions of climatic variables in Bastar, Dantewada, Janjgir-Champa, Jashpur, Kabirdham and Surguja are estimated. The time series data was used for district-level data. while the number of cross-section data is used in the state-level data set. The Department of Agro-meteorology, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya (IGKV), Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), and Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of India, provided the secondary data. For climate change analysis, more than 90% of the gross cultivated area was assumed to be agriculture. The association between climatic variation and yield fluctuations was examined using main crop yield and diverse climatic data sets. The composite vulnerability index is calculated by adding the vulnerability indicator values. District and activity-wise climate change adaptation plans were created using the CCAP Tool. The tool took a holistic approach to livelihood strategy vulnerability to climate change, focusing on district livelihood activities. Various analytical tools were used to get outcomes for the study, panel data analysis, tabular analysis, regression analysis, vulnerability index, tools of CCAP and garret ranking technique were used to fulfil objectives.

The findings reveal that the state experiences the highest volume of precipitation during the southwest monsoon season, with approximately 87% of the rainfall occurring between June and September. Specifically, the state receives 15% of the rainfall in June, and 29%, 26%, and 16% of the rainfall in July, August, and September, respectively.

The present research investigates the mean maximum temperature, coefficient of variation and standard deviation across different districts for a duration of four decades (1980-2019). Over a span of 40 years, the Chhattisgarh state has exhibited a mean maximum temperature of 32.27°C, accompanied by a coefficient of variation of 1.250 percent and a standard deviation of roughly 0.400°C. The annual mean maximum temperature increments in the districts of Rajnandgaon and Korba were found to be the highest, measuring 32.99°C and 32.88°C, respectively. The present investigation analyses the pattern of the minimum average temperature at the district level over the period spanning from 1980 to 2019. Koriya demonstrated the most substantial annual escalation of +0.0118°C, while Balrampur, Surajpur, Rajandgaon, Mungeli, Korba, Kabirdham, and Bilaspur displayed similar trends.

An increase of 1°C in maximum temperature results in a yield increase of 50 kilogrammes for major crops. Effective stress management is essential for the successful cultivation of any crop. During the month of August, the paddy fields undergo the process of flowering and booting. In the event of rainfall, the Table indicates a yield that is negative in value, albeit not statistically significant. The increase of maximum temperature by 1°C in the months of March and December has been observed to have an impact on the yield of rabi crops such as redgram. Specifically, the yield of redgram in March and December has been recorded to be 88 and 152 kilogrammes, respectively. The study indicates that precipitation of 1 millimetre during the months of July and September has a positive impact on the yield of major crops, resulting in an increase of 2 and 3 kilogrammes, respectively. An increase of 1°C in maximum temperature during the period of May to November has been found to enhance crop yield by 189 kilogrammes. It is probable that there is a lack of autocorrelation in a positive manner.

This study aims to provide an analysis of the land use classification in Chhattisgarh in terms of percentage distribution. Chhattisgarh exhibited a cropping intensity of 116 percent in the year 2000-01, indicating a marginal increase of 0.31 percent. In the year 2021, the state of Chhattisgarh experienced a crop yield increase of 123 percent. Between 2000 and 2021, there was a 0.031 percent increase in forest coverage, resulting in current coverage of 46%. The net sown area in Chhattisgarh has experienced an annual decrease of 0.07 percent. The Gross Cropped Area of Chhattisgarh experienced a moderate increase. The percentage of change in land use classification from 2000 to 2021. The net-sown area has experienced a 4% reduction. The agricultural sector experienced a significant increase of 10% in farming intensity. The percentage of non-agricultural and cultivable wasteland increased by 8 and 5 percent, respectively. The forest cover experienced a 2% increase, while the gross crop exhibited a 5% rise. From 2019 to 2021, the average acreage and production of paddy crops constituted 74% and 84% of the main crops, respectively. Paddy has achieved the highest levels of both area and production. Maize, gram, wheat, and Lathyrus exhibit yields of 4%, 2%, and 1%, respectively. After paddy, Gram, Lathyrus maize, and urad are the crops that occupy the largest land area in Chhattisgarh, accounting for 6%, 4%, 2%, 2%, and 1%, respectively.

Rainfall in June–September increases paddy productivity. Monsoon rainfall from June to September decreased maize productivity (-3.19***). Minimum winter temperature decreases maize productivity. The annual minimum temperature has the greatest impact, increasing productivity by 28.98% per degree.

Groundnuts require a long growing season, thus extreme cold and frost damage them. With a 1 percent increase in minimum temperature in March and May, productivity declines by 7.35 percent and 7.63 percent, respectively. The annual maximum temperature has the greatest impact on maize yield: a one-degree increase decreases productivity by 24.66 percent. Rainfall largely affects crop yield. Gram crop is cultivated during the rabi season, thus when rainfall is greater in the kharif season, area and production increase. Every monsoon season rainfall decreases yield by 3.88 percent. Only four variables significantly affect district sugarcane crop productivity. In August, every percent of rainfall increases productivity by 3.48 percent. With every one percent increase in maximum temperature in winter, agricultural yield decreases by 41.35 percent, while maximum temperature in May increases crop productivity. Maximum summer and winter temperatures have largely affected mustard crops, decreasing yield by 9.28 and 11.36 percent per degree Celsius. Only the annual maximum temperature increased yield by 18.13 percent.

The policy implications that emerged from this study are; that in this rapid climate-changing scenario, hills need special attention by the state government. Marginal and small farmers in plains, also require the attention and help of the government to make their livelihood more efficient to cope with climate change. The state government required to plan more infrastructural development in all the regions. Work on developing the methods of forecasting the possible climatic events, and developing new heat-resistant varieties, that can cope with the ill effects of climate change, had to be done by the R & D Departments of Government of Uttarakhand, Agricultural Universities, ICAR institutions and related institutes. Chhattisgarh government and their institutions shall prepare mitigation measures the reduce the causes of climate change issues.